TOURISM FEARS

Domestic travel will drop 30 per cent in the upcoming Songkran festival, says the Association of Thai Tour Operators.


The dramatic fall will be the result of increasing safety fears following Sunday's bomb blasts in the restive South.


More people are set to travel abroad during the traditional Thai New Year in April, said association president Taksin Pillavas.


The coordinated bombings in the South, along with the New Year's Eve bombs in Bangkok and political unrest, will cause more Thais to stay at home during festive seasons, due to security concerns.


"As the blasts happened during major festivals, people are concerned about what will happen in the next festival," said Taksin.


To restore tourist confidence, the government should make every effort to catch the bombers as soon as possible.


Taksin said more Thai tourists would choose to travel abroad from safety concerns, especially as doing so was sometimes cheaper than travelling inside the Kingdom.


"Many high-spending Thais now plan to go abroad during the school break in April for reasons of security," said Taksin.


The association will meet tomorrow to discuss the problems and will then ask the government for help.


Association of Thai Travel Agents president Apichart Sankary said the private sector was concerned about safety during all major events. Travel operators would like the government to solve the security problems as quickly as possible.


"The southern unrest is not only affecting tourism in the South. It is also affecting Bangkok, because the government is still failing to catch the suspects," he added.


Apichart urged the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) to prepare its crisis-management centre, which has a call centre and information service to help tourists in emergency cases.


The centre should work more closely with the Tourist Police and hospitals, he added.


Apichart said all bodies should consider the safety issue in the run-up to Songkran, the country's biggest holiday.


TAT is organising the Songkran festival in Bangkok and all major tourist areas. The authority has promoted Songkran as an international festival for many years.


The annual event normally attracts a huge number of tourists from neighbouring countries, especially Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia and China, as well as European nations.


The association will speak with inbound tour operators today to discuss security concerns.


Board of Trade chairman Pramon Sutivong said it was uncertain how much the bomb blasts would affect the economy but that the tourism sector would definitely be hit.


"I hope the tragedy can be confined to the four southernmost provinces," he said.


Members of the board will discuss the economic impact of the blasts at its regular meeting today.


Thanawat Polvichai, an economist at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said tourism would be the hardest-hit sector.


"Yet the impact on the overall economy should be limited, given that the four provinces generate only 3.5-4 per cent to the country's gross domestic product. But if another incident occurs, that could affect the entire economy and cause economic growth to fall below 4 per cent," he said.


The Bank of Thailand is optimistic that economic growth this year will reach 4-5 per cent as forecast, despite the bombings.


Governor Tarisa Watanagase said the economy was unlikely to be adversely affected by Sunday's blasts in the South and that the economy would grow 4-5 per cent as projected. Inflation is not a concern, because oil prices have proved sustainable, she said.


Pong-adul Kristnaraj, a senior director of the central bank's southern-region office, said the bank had not yet surveyed officially the impact of the attacks on the economy.


He personally believed the incidents would dampen tourism in the southernmost provinces, because the ongoing violence had caused tourists to feel increasingly insecure.


The bombings and arson attacks happened not only in the three southernmost provinces, but also in four districts of Songkhla, where Hat Yai, a big commercial and tourism centre, is located.


"When the attacks have an impact on tourism in the southernmost provinces, it will certainly affect the southern economy. If the government's policy of cracking down on the problem remains unchanged, the incidents will also remain," Pong-adul said.


The number of tourists in the three southernmost provinces declined 0.6 per cent last year, compared with a fall of 19 per cent in 2005.


Pong-adul said security would play an important role for tourism and investor confidence this year. Declining inflation and interest rates are no longer key factors for investment.

Suchat Sritama,


Anoma Srisukkasem


The Nation